Human Health explores what is known about climate-related public health threats, including those associated with extreme heat, air quality (including dust and fire-related particulates), and changes to disease vectors (such as mosquito populations); looks at the factors that interact with and complicate disease transmission and risk; and reviews public health and adaptation planning.
Citation:
Brown, H. E., A. C. Comrie, D. M. Drechsler, C. M. Barker, R. Basu, T. Brown, A. Gershunov, A. M. Kilpatrick, W. K. Reisen, and D. M. Ruddell. 2013. “Human Health.” In Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, edited by G. Garfin, A. Jardine, R. Merideth, M. Black, and S. LeRoy, 312–339. A report by the Southwest Climate Alliance. Washington, DC: Island Press.
Heidi E. Brown (University of Arizona)
Andrew C. Comrie (University of Arizona)
Deborah M. Drechsler (California Air Resources Board)
Christopher M. Barker (University of California, Davis)
Rupa Basu (California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment)
Timothy Brown (Desert Research Institute)
Alexander Sasha Gershunov (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
A. Marm Kilpatrick (University of California, Santa Cruz)
William K. Reisen (University of California, Davis)
Darren M. Ruddell (University of Southern California)
Key Findings
Climate change will increase heat-related morbidity and mortality and will affect respiratory health from increased wildfire particulate matter.
Climate change will affect vector-borne disease prevalence, but increased or decreased incidence will be location- and disease-specific.
Rising temperature will accelerate atmospheric chemical reactions, tending to increase concentrations of ozone and possibly particulates.
Figure Gallery
Figure 15.1: Hazy view of Los Angeles. The visible smog translates into poor air quality with negative consequences for cardiorespiratory health. Photo courtesy of David Iliff. License: CC_BY_SA 3.0.
Figure 15.2: Projected ozone response to climate in three urban areas of California, 2050. A recent EPA-funded study at the University of California, Berkeley evaluated the effects of variables associated with anticipated changes in climate and ozone precursor emissions for cities in California’s Central Valley (Fresno and Sacramento) and San Francisco Bay Area. In the set of bars at left, expected reductions (due to existing and projected control measures) in ozone precursor emissions in 2050 would reduce ozone levels, assuming no change in climate. In the middle set of bars, changes in climate variables (such as higher temperatures) and expected increases in nitrogen oxide and hydrocarbon emissions lead to higher regional ozone concentrations. When these two effects are combined on the right, the benefits of the emissions reductions are partially or completely offset by climate-related increases in ozone, especially in the San Francisco Bay Area. Thus, climate change will make ozone standards more difficult to attain.
Figure 15.3: Incidence of selected diseases in the Southwest as a percent of total for the United States. The proportion of the total cases in the United States of West Nile virus, valley fever, plague, and Hanta pulmonary syndrome reported annually from the Southwest to the CDC shows consistency from year to year. Data from cases reported to the CDC.
Figure 15.4: U.S. census population predictions by age. Predictions that are stratified by age show an increase over the coming decades in the proportion of the 65-and-older population. The decadal estimates were generated using 2000 U.S. Census data. Source: Vincent and Velkoff (2010).
Figure 15.5: 2010 Wildfire in Great Sand Dunes National Park, Colorado. © University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.
Figure 15.6: Dust storm on Interstate 10 near Phoenix, July 8, 2007. Photo courtesy of Los Cuatro Ojos blog (http:// loscuatroojos. com/2007/07/28/ dust-storms-overphoenix- looksworse- than-it-is/).
Figure 15.7: Model-based estimates of changes in WNV transmission potential during June, based on expected shortening of the incubation period in mosquitoes. Shown is the decrease in the average number of mosquito bites necessary to get from infection to transmission (BT) for WNV by 2100, based on future temperatures derived for mean scenarios used by Dettinger (2005). Parts of the region with cooler climates show a progressive decrease in BT during June by 2100, increasing the risk of transmission, whereas areas with extremely warm or extremely dry desert climates show no change in BT from current estimates. Source: PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, http:// www.prism.oregonstate.edu.