Moving Forward with Imperfect Information connects the discussions from other chapters about scientific uncertainties, monitoring deficiencies, and data challenges; summarizes the scope of what is known and not known about the region’s climate; outlines uncertainties that can impede adaptation to the impacts of climate change; and discusses climate models and scenarios of the future.
Citation:
Averyt, K., L. D. Brekke, D. E. Busch, L. Kaatz, L. Welling, and E. H. Hartge. 2013. “Moving Forward with Imperfect Information.” In Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, edited by G. Garfin, A. Jardine, R. Merideth, M. Black, and S. LeRoy, 436–461. A report by the Southwest Climate Alliance. Washington, DC: Island Press.
Kristen Averyt (University of Colorado Boulder)
Levi D. Brekke (Bureau of Reclamation)
David E. Busch (U.S. Geological Survey)
Laurna Kaatz (Denver Water)
Leigh Welling (National Park Service)
Eric H. Hartge (Stanford University)
Key Findings
There is now more evidence and agreement among climate scientists about the physical climate and its impacts in the Southwest than ever before.
There remain uncertainties about the understanding the climate system, climate models, and the related impacts to the biophysical environment.
The adaptive capacity of decision-making entities and legal systems to handle climate impacts in the Southwest is unclear, creating challenges.
There is much research evidence and agreement that water cycle changes and increasing temperatures signal future water supply challenges.
A dearth of climate observations at high elevations and on tribal lands contributes to the uncertainties of the Southwest’s climate projections.
Figure Gallery
Figure 19.1: Working with uncertainty. Continuum of uncertainties, knowledge gaps and challenges related to projecting future climate changes and their impacts, and assessing vulnerabilities to future changes. See Tables 19.1 and 19.2 for syntheses of knowledge and uncertainties identified by authors of this assessment report. Adapted from Pidgeon and Fischhoff (2011).
Figure 19.2: Summary evaluation of confidence, in terms of levels of evidence and agreement of the evidence. Adapted from Mastrandrea et al. (2011).
Figure 19.3: Cone of uncertainty used in Denver Water Scenario Planning Initiative. Uncertainties, due to knowledge or communication gaps or imperfect information increase as time progresses from present to future. The increase in uncertainties related to scientific understanding of the distant future (around 100 years hence), has prompted many resource managers and planners to consider multiple scenarios of the future, which can be evaluated at key decision points in the near or medium term (roughly 10-50 years into the future). Adapted from Waage and Kaatz (2011).