Natural Ecosystems analyzes the association of observed changes in climate with changes in the geographic distributions and phenology (the timing of blossoms or migrations of birds) for Southwestern ecosystems and their species, portraying ecosystem disturbances—such as wildfires and outbreaks of forest pathogens—and carbon storage and release, in relation to climate change.
Citation:
Fleishman, E., J. Belnap, N. Cobb, C. A. F. Enquist, K. Ford, G. MacDonald, M. Pellant, T. Schoennagel, L. M. Schmit, M. Schwartz, S. van Drunick, A. L. Westerling, A. Keyser, and R. Lucas. 2013. “Natural Ecosystems.” In Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, edited by G. Garfin, A. Jardine, R. Merideth, M. Black, and S. LeRoy, 148–167. A report by the Southwest Climate Alliance. Washington, DC: Island Press.
Erica Fleishman (University of California, Davis)
Jayne Belnap (U.S. Geological Survey)
Neil Cobb (Northern Arizona University)
Carolyn A.F. Enquist (USA National Phenology Network/The Wildlife Society)
Karl Ford (Bureau of Land Management)
Glen MacDonald (University of California, Los Angeles)
Mike Pellant (Bureau of Land Management)
Tania Schoennagel (University of Colorado)
Lara M. Schmit (Northern Arizona University)
Mark Schwartz (University of California, Davis)
Suzanne van Drunick (Environmental Protection Agency)
Anthony LeRoy Westerling (University of California, Merced)
Alisa Keyser (University of California, Merced)
Ryan Lucas (University of California, Merced)
Key Findings
Habitat for native cutthroat trout is projected to decrease by up to 58 percent due to temperature increases and competition with other species.
Some disturbance processes, such as wildfires and outbreaks of forest pests, are associated strongly with observed climate changes.
Observed changes in climate are associated strongly with some observed changes in the timing of seasonal events in the life cycles of species.
Observed changes in climate are associated strongly with some changes in geographic distributions of species.
Mortality of some species of plants in some regions is associated directly with higher temperatures and decreases in precipitation.
Figure Gallery
Figure 8.1: Areas of the western United States burned in large (> 1000 acres [400 ha]) fires, 1984–2011. Dark shading shows fires in areas classified as forest or woodland at 98-feet (30-meter) resolution by the LANDFIRE project (http://www.landfire.gov/). Fire data from 1984–2007 are from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity project (http://www.mtbs.gov/) and fire data from 2008–2011 are from the Geospatial Multi-Agency Coordination Group (http://www.geomac.gov/).
Figure 8.2: Area of large (>1,000 acre [400 ha]) wildfires that burned lands dominated by forest and woodland and managed by the U.S. Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. National Park Service, and U.S. Forest Service in Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. Data from Westerling, Turner, Smithwick et al. (2011 online supplement); U.S. Department of the Interior (2008 fire data); and U.S. Department of Agriculture (https://fam.nwcg.gov/fam-web/kcfast/mnmenu.htm).