Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts shows the potential effects of climate change on energy production, consumption, and delivery—including the influence of temperature increases on different methods of electricity generation (such as from natural gas turbines, hydropower, or thermoelectric sources), on transportation systems, and on the vulnerability of energy-related infrastructure.
Citation:
Tidwell, V. C., L. Dale, G. Franco, K. Averyt, M. Wei, D. M. Kammen, and J. H. Nelson. 2013. “Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts.” In Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, edited by G. Garfin, A. Jardine, R. Merideth, M. Black, and S. LeRoy, 240–266. A report by the Southwest Climate Alliance. Washington, DC: Island Press.
Vincent C. Tidwell (Sandia National Laboratories)
Larry Dale (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)
Guido Franco (California Energy Commission)
Kristen Averyt (University of Colorado)
Max Wei (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)
Daniel M. Kammen (University of California-Berkeley)
James H. Nelson (University of California- Berkeley)
Key Findings
Delivery of electricity may become more vulnerable to disruption due to a variety of climate-induced extreme heat and drought events.
Increased sea level along the California coast would increase the risk of flooding impacts for some twenty-five to thirty power plants.
Climate change can affect energy production by altering electricity generation, increasing electricity demand, and reducing water supplies.
Increases in the size and frequency of wildfires in the Southwest will increasingly affect electricity transmission lines.
A shift from a fossil fuel economy to one rich in renewables has significant implications for water and land use, air quality, and the economy.
Figure Gallery
Figure 12.1: Energy production in the Southwest region. Source: EIA (2010).
Figure 12.2: Energy consumption in the Southwest region. Source: EIA (2010).
Figure 12.3: Electricity generation in the Southwest region. Source: EIA (2010).
Figure 12.4: Energy distribution in the Southwest region. Source: EIA (2010).
Figure 12.5: Compounding impacts of drought on energy.
Figure 12.6: Transmission line exposure to wildfire. The probability of damage is taken as the product of the probability fire and the relative length of the line in a given region. Used in this study are the GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), PCM1 (Parallel Climate Model), and CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques) GCM, and the high- and lowemissions scenarios as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000). Modified from Sathaye et al. (2012).
Figure 12.7: Power plants potentially at risk to a 100- year flood with 1.4-m (4.6-ft) sea-level rise. Reproduced from Sathaye et al. (2012).
Figure 12.8: Projected generation and transmission flow in 2050. The map shows projected average generation and average transmission flow between load areas (electricity demand zones) under high regulation of green-house gas emissions. The size of each pie represents the amount of generation in the load area in which the pie resides. The flows of electricity are depicted as straight lines for clarity. Reproduced from Wei et al. (2012).